RBC Royal Bank "Leading indicator points to positive, but slower, growth ahead" September 2006

RBC Royal Bank "Leading indicator points to positive, but slower, growth ahead"
Latest month available: August 2006

Release date: September 20, 2006

Fixed income and currency market reaction
The leading economic indicator rose by 0.2% in August. July's increase was revised up to show a 0.3% increase, (previously reported as 0.2%).

Implications
The rise in the leading indicator confirms that economy continued to exhibit decent momentum in the third quarter with seven of the 10 components recording increases in August.

The biggest decline occurred in the housing index, which fell 2.5% as a result of a decline in housing starts and a levelling off of house sales. The slowing in housing market activity restrained growth in furniture and appliance sales to 0.5%, their slowest increase this year.

Manufacturing new orders rose 0.1%, while the ratio of shipments-to-inventories remained relatively flat. Money supply growth increased while the U.S. Conference Board leading indicator fell 0.1%.

Today's release points to positive, but modestly slower, growth ahead in line with our forecast that real GDP growth will moderate in the second half of the year after increasing at a 2.8% average pace in the first half.

Real GDP... Second-quarter real GDP surprises on downside
Release date: August 31, 2006

Fixed income and currency market reaction
Canadian second-quarter real GDP surprised on the downside, rising at a 2% annualized pace, below market expectations of a 2.3% annualized increase and well below the forecast put forward by the Bank of Canada in their latest Monetary Policy Report Update. First-quarter GDP growth was revised down to a 3.6% annualized pace from 3.8%. On a monthly basis, the Canadian economy remained stable in June. The lower-than-expected second-quarter read will prove negative for the Canadian dollar and positive for bonds.

Implications
While consumer spending slowed slightly in the quarter to 4.2% from the first quarter's 5.1% pace, it continued to support the economy. Expenditures on durable goods decelerated sharply.

Residential investment declined 5.2% after growing at a solid 12.7% in the first quarter due to mild winter weather. Businesses continued to invest in plant and equipment, although the pace of the investment was slower than that registered in the first. A large business inventory investment was also evident in the second quarter.

Exports fell 1.2%, continuing the decline seen in the first quarter as manufacturing output weakened further. Auto exports fell for a second consecutive quarter. Imports rebounded from a weak first quarter as the Canadian dollar appreciated. The strength of business investment accounted for much of the increase as imports of machinery and equipment grew.

Wages and salaries grew by 1.3% in the second quarter, while nominal profits edged ahead 0.4%.

The details of the report are not all bad news as most of the components contributed to growth in the quarter.

The major drag was net trade. However, most of the drag in net trade came from imports, which were largely supported by strong business investment. Hence, the overall picture is not completely one of doom-and-gloom.

The report is consistent with no change in interest rates at next week's Bank of Canada meeting and tilts the risk towards no more hikes for the remainder of the year.

Source: "Financial Markets Monthly", Economics Departnment, RBC Financial Group.
Read this report and more from the Royal Bank of Canada at this link: http://www.rbccm.com/0,,cid-10676_,00.html

For more information please contact:

Kathy Gordon
Sales Representative
RE/MAX Professionals Inc., Brokerage
270 The Kingsway Suite 200, Toronto, Ontario M9A 3T7

BUS (416) 236-1241
FAX (416) 231-0563
E-MAIL kathy@etobicokehomes4sale.com
Website: etobicokehomes4sale.com

Toronto condo market the most active in North America

Toronto most active condo market in North America

Toronto was the most active, and probably the largest condominium market in North America in the second quarter of 2006, according to a report published by Urbanation, an independent analysis company that has been doing in-depth studies of the Toronto condo market since 1981. The Urbanation report says the new condominium market now represents 39 per cent of total new home sales in the Toronto CMA.

The Urbanation report says there were 255 new condominium projects representing more than 53,000 units in the Toronto CMA in the second quarter of this year. However more than 77 per cent of the units were already sold and more than 28,000 were under construction in the quarter.

In the first six months of 2006, more than 8,300 buyers visited sales centres throughout the city and found what they were looking for -- the right product, for the right price, in the right location. This is similar to the sales performance in the first half of 2005, which ended up being a record year for new condominium apartment sales with more than 16,000 sold across the Toronto CMA.

Urbanation says developers must pre-sell 65 – 70 per cent of the units from floor plans before a project can proceed. The company’s report indicates that in the second quarter of this year, unsold units represented 23 per cent of total new condominium units on the market. In contrast, when the condominium market crashed in the late 1980s, unsold units represented nearly 50 per cent of the total inventory in active projects.

Urbanation also says today's condominium buyers are savvy, well-educated consumers who are taking the time to shop around and compare projects to find the best value for their money. This means that prices have remained both competitive and affordable as the condominium market is largely driven by "real" buyers looking for real homes to move into. By contrast, in the 1980s the demand for new condominiums was driven largely by speculators and investors. This resulted in a sharp increase in both sales activity and prices over a very short period of time and created an unsustainable market bubble.

There are investors buying new condominiums in 2006, Urbanation says, but they represent less than one-quarter of total new condominium buyers in the Toronto CMA. “Due to increasing construction costs, we have seen higher prices for new condominium projects over the past six to nine months, and increasing mortgage rates, so statistically speaking, the number of people who can afford to purchase a new home has decreased. The good news so far is that our data does not show any early warning signs of a significant market downturn as sales have remained strong, suggesting that overall affordability remains high and consumers are still finding excellent value for their money.”

However, Urbanation says continued rising construction costs and mortgage rates over the long term may increase the chances of a "soft landing" for the condominium market in future, but not a crash similar to what occurred in the 1980s.
Created: 09/17/2006



For more information please contact:

Kathy Gordon
Sales Representative
RE/MAX Professionals Inc., Brokerage
270 The Kingsway Suite 200, Toronto, Ontario M9A 3T7

BUS (416) 236-1241
FAX (416) 231-0563
E-MAIL kathy@etobicokehomes4sale.com
Website: etobicokehomes4sale.com

Housing Starts were strong in July in the Toronto housing market

The Toronto housing market experienced strong housing starts in July 2006

July home construction in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) remained strong, but continued on a downward trend. The seasonally-adjusted annual rate of starts was 41,600 - down slightly from 43,800 in June. For the first seven months of 2006, on an unadjusted basis, new home starts declined by over 13 per cent compared to the same period last year.


Over the past two years, the resale home market has become more balanced, meaning home buyers have benefited from more choice. Increased resale home listings coupled with high home prices have resulted in fewer pre-construction

HOUSING STARTS STRONG IN JULY

Sales of low-rise homes and lower housing starts. Condominium apartment starts, at 1,261 in July, remained strong, though not as exceptional as in July of last year when condominium apartment starts spiked to 3,387. Despite the decline, year-to-date building activity points to a second consecutive year of record condominium apartment construction. Condominium apartments are becoming an increasingly popular home ownership option for many households. The average prices and mortgage payments associated with ground-oriented homes, including single-detached houses, are too high for many buyers, especially those purchasing their first home. The average price for a completed and absorbed single-detached house through July was almost $460,000, with a monthly principal and interest payment of approximately $2,400 (calculated using a 25 per cent down payment and a five-year fixed rate mortgage amortized over 25 years). The minimum annual income required to carry this mortgage is slightly more than $90,000 (assumes a gross debt-to-service ratio of 32 per cent), which is above the average household income in the Toronto area. This article is courtesy of CMHC

For more information please contact:

Kathy Gordon
Sales Representative
RE/MAX Professionals Inc., Brokerage
270 The Kingsway Suite 200, Toronto, Ontario M9A 3T7

BUS (416) 236-1241
FAX (416) 231-0563
E-MAIL kathy@etobicokehomes4sale.com
Website: etobicokehomes4sale.com